The unique position of the Army-Navy game

The Army-Navy game is a unique fixture in college football, celebrated for its history and intense rivalry. It’s the only game scheduled for the Saturday after the conference championship weekend in December. Traditionally, this meeting did not affect the ranking or prospects of the national championship.

This year presents a different scenario.

Both service academies are undefeated and ranked, making them strong contenders for the 12-team College Football Playoff if they can secure the American Athletic Conference (AAC) title. Army, ranked No. 1, boasts a 7-0 record, while Navy, ranked No. 24, holds a 6-0 record. However, the playoff lineup will be finalized on Dec. 8, a week before the Army-Navy game in Landover, Maryland. As members of the AAC, they could face each other twice in a season.

The evolving situation

Army quarterback Bryson Daily leads with a whopping 19 rushing touchdowns. The Black Knights have not trailed in any game this season, demonstrating a dominant rushing offense led by Daily’s 26 total touchdowns. With a 6-0 AAC record, Army has just two conference games remaining against North Texas and UTSA.

Navy, undefeated at 6-0, faces a critical matchup against No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium. This marks their strongest season since 2019, when they had 11 wins. Both teams are currently atop the AAC standings.

Potential for double encounters

It’s possible that Army and Navy will compete twice in a row, first in the AAC championship on Dec. 6 and then in the annual game on Dec. 14. Tulane, with a 3-0 conference record, could disrupt Navy’s plans if they win against them in November. 16.

Impact on the CFP

While the AAC championship could influence College Football Playoff (CFP) selection, the traditional Army-Navy game will not. Playoff selections take place on December 8, before the annual game. Previously, the selection committee would have considered Army-Navy implications, but with the 12-team playoffs starting Dec. 20-21, that is no longer feasible. Therefore, there is a scenario where a service academy could win the AAC and secure a spot in the CFP, but lose their final regular season game to the same opponent.

Preparation challenges

If Army or Navy were to make the playoffs, they would face a tighter preparation schedule than other teams, as no one else will play the week of Dec. 14.

Possibility of play-offs

The probability of either team reaching the playoffs is 29.6%. However, individual possibilities vary based on future matches. If Navy defeats Notre Dame, playoff chance increases to 10%; a loss reduces it to 5%. The Army, facing the Air Force, has higher probabilities: 30% in case of victory and 14% in case of defeat. Army also plays Notre Dame on Nov. 23 at Yankee Stadium.

According to Austin Mock’s model, the Army has a 63% chance of winning the AAC, while the Navy has a 15% chance.

Path to the playoffs

For Army or Navy to make the playoffs, they must continue to win and secure the AAC title. Additionally, Mountain West teams must falter. Boise State (5-1) is higher, with UNLV (6-1) also in contention. Boise State’s game at UNLV could have a significant impact on playoff dynamics.

Historical context

Army won five national championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), although the titles were claimed by multiple programs during those years. Navy shares the 1926 national title. The last AP top 10 ranking for either team came in 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.

Upcoming games

Army finishes the regular season against Air Force, North Texas, Notre Dame, UTSA and Navy. Navy’s remaining schedule includes games with Notre Dame, Rice, South Florida, Tulane, East Carolina and Army.